Evaluating the Accessibility and Actionability of Early Warning Messages of Cyclone among Last Mile Communities in Bangladesh

Md. Faisal; Umme Hani Tanu; Milton Kumar Saha; Ayesha Siddiqua; Most. Nusrat Binte Nur

doi:10.28932/ice.v7i3.14947

Authors

Md. Faisal Department of Disaster Resilience and Engineering, Patuakhali Science and Technology University, Dumki, Patuakhali-8660, Bangladesh
Umme Hani Tanu Department of Disaster Resilience and Engineering, Patuakhali Science and Technology University, Dumki, Patuakhali-8660, Bangladesh
Milton Kumar Saha Climate Migration and Resilience Building, Helvetas Bangladesh
Ayesha Siddiqua Department of Disaster Resilience and Engineering, Patuakhali Science and Technology University, Dumki, Patuakhali-8660, Bangladesh
Most. Nusrat Binte Nur Department of Disaster Resilience and Engineering, Patuakhali Science and Technology University, Dumki, Patuakhali-8660, Bangladesh

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.28932/ice.v7i3.14947

Keywords:

accessibility, actionability, early warning messages, last mile communities

Abstract

Bangladesh is highly vulnerable to natural disasters. Early warning systems are an essential tool for risk management and disaster preparedness that help save lives and minimize the potential impact of disasters. To be effective, early warning systems need to rely on the direct participation of at-risk communities, facilitate public education and awareness among at-risk communities, and disseminate warning messages in a timely manner. The aim of the study is to identify the factors influencing the accessibility and actionability of early warning messages and provide some recommendations to increase the resilience of poor and vulnerable people on the coast. The study was conducted in the Gulishakhali union under Amtali Upazila in Barguna District. The study results show that the highest number of people receive early warning messages through social media, at 34%, receive word-of-mouth messages from people by 30%, through mobile phone by 19%, receive messages through TV by 14%, and the lowest number of people receive early warning messages through community meetings by 3%. The result also shows the factors that influence the early warning systems and locally managed warning systems to increase resilience. Among the factors, communication barriers are in the first position, and lack of access to communication channels is not sufficient for the study area. Understanding the level of the messages, language barriers, and transportation barriers also influences the early warning systems. Increased awareness-raising, regular community meetings, and training programs are the recommendations for locally managed early warning systems to increase the resilience of poor and vulnerable people on the coast.

References

Ahsan, M. N., Khatun, A., Islam, M. S., Vink, K., Ohara, M., & Fakhruddin, B. S. (2020). Preferences for improved early warning services among coastal communities at risk in cyclone prone south-west region of Bangladesh. Progress in Disaster Science, 5, 100065. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pdisas.2020.100065

Akhand, M. H. (2003). Disaster management and cyclone warning system in Bangladesh. In J. Zschau & A. Küppers (Eds.), Early warning systems for natural disaster reduction (pp. 49-64). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-55903-7_8

Alcántara-Ayala, I., & Oliver-Smith, A. (2016). The necessity of early warning articulated systems (EWASs): Critical issues beyond response. In K. Sudmeier-Rieux, M. Fernández, I. M. Penna, M. Jaboyedoff, & J. C. Gaillard (Eds.), Identifying emerging issues in disaster risk reduction, migration, climate change, and sustainable development: Shaping debates and policies (pp. 101-124). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-33880-4_7

As-Salek, J. A. (1998). Coastal trapping and funneling effects on storm surges in the Meghna Estuary in relation to cyclones hitting Noakhali–Cox’s Bazar Coast of Bangladesh. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 28(2), 227-249. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0485(1998)028<0227:CTAFEO>2.0.CO;2

Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics. (2012). Community report Barguna Zila. Statistics and Informatics Division Ministry of Planning.

Baudoin, M., Henly-Shepard, S., Fernando, N., Sitati, A., & Zommers, Z. (2014). Early warning systems and livelihood resilience: Exploring opportunities for community participation. UNU-EHS Working Paper Series, 1.

Daramola, A. M., Satyanaga, A., Adejumo, B. D., Kim, Y., Qian, Z., & Kim, J. (2025). Real-time scanning curve of soil–water characteristic curve for sustainability of residual soil slopes. Sustainability, 17(5), 1803. https://doi.org/10.3390/su17051803

Faisal, M., Saha, M. K., & Biswas, A. K. M. A. A. (2024). Risk analysis of climate induced disaster in coastal Bangladesh: Study on Dashmina Upazila in Patuakhali District. International Journal of Disaster Management, 6(3), 355-368. https://doi.org/10.24815/ijdm.v6i3.36483

Faisal, M., Saha, M. K., Sattar, M. A., Biswas, A. K. M. A. A., & Hossain, M. A. (2021). Evaluation of climate induced hazards risk for coastal Bangladesh: A participatory approach-based assessment. Geomatics, Natural Hazards, and Risk, 12(1), 2477-2499. https://doi.org/10.1080/19475705.2021.1967203

Ferdous, M. (2017). Cyclone warning in Bangladesh and preparedness effort [Master's thesis, BRAC University]. BRAC University Institutional Repository. http://hdl.handle.net/10361/10906

Grasso, V. F., & Singh, A. (2012). Early warning systems: State-of-art analysis and future directions. United Nations Environment Programme. https://na.unep.net/siouxfalls/publications/Early_Warning.pdf

Habib, A., Shahidullah, M., & Ahmed, D. (2012). The Bangladesh cyclone preparedness program. A vital component of the nation’s multi-hazard early warning system. In M. Golnaraghi (Eds.), Institutional partnerships in multi-hazard early warning systems: A compilation of seven national good practices and guiding principles (pp. 29-62). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-25373-7_3

Lindell, M. K., & Perry, R. W. (2003). Communicating environmental risk in multiethnic communities. Sage publications. https://doi.org/10.4135/9781452229188

Madsen, H., & Jakobsen, F. (2004). Cyclone induced storm surge and flood forecasting in the northern Bay of Bengal. Coastal Engineering, 51(4), 277-296. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2004.03.001

Nur, M. N. B., Rahim, M. A., & Rasheduzzaman, M. (2021). Identifying cyclone shelter facilities and limitations for enhancing community resiliency in coastal areas of Bangladesh. Asian Journal of Social Sciences and Legal Studies, 3(4), 107-118. https://doi.org/10.34104/ajssls.021.01070118

Paul, A., & Rahman, M. (2006). Cyclone mitigation perspectives in the Islands of Bangladesh: A case of Sandwip and Hatia Islands. Coastal Management, 34(2), 199-215. https://doi.org/10.1080/08920750500531371

Paul, B. K. (2009). Why relatively fewer people died? The case of Bangladesh’s Cyclone Sidr. Natural Hazards, 50(2), 289-304. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-008-9340-5

Paul, S. K., & Routray, J. K. (2012). An analysis of the causes of non-responses to cyclone warnings and the use of indigenous knowledge for cyclone forecasting in Bangladesh. In W. L. Filho (Eds.), Climate change and disaster risk management (pp. 15-39). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-31110-9_2

Rogers, D., & Tsirkunov, V. (2011). Implementing hazard early warning systems. Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery, 11, 1-47.

Roy, C., Sarkar, S. K., Åberg, J., & Kovordanyi, R. (2015). The current cyclone early warning system in Bangladesh: providers' and receivers' views. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 12, 285-299. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2015.02.004

Saha, M. K., Biswas, A. K. M. A. A., & Faisal, M. (2024). Livelihood vulnerability of coastal communities in context of the climate change: A index-based assessment. World Development Sustainability, 4, 100152. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wds.2024.100152

Sahana, M., Patel, P. P., Rehman, S., Rahaman, M. H., Masroor, M., Imdad, K., & Sajjad, H. (2023). Assessing the effectiveness of existing early warning systems and emergency preparedness towards reducing cyclone-induced losses in the Sundarban Biosphere Region, India. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 90, 103645. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2023.103645

Satyanaga, A., Fournier-Carrrie, A., Rahardjo, H., Rangarajan, S., Aventian, G. D., Moon, S. W., & Kim, J. (2025). Moisture sensing technology as preventive measures against Rainfall-induced slope Failures–A review. Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment, 84(9), 431. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10064-025-04463-0

Shahjahan, M. (2018). Assessing the cyclone early warning services of women, children and person with disability: A case study in Nijhumdwip [Master's thesis, BRAC University]. BRAC University Institutional Repository. http://hdl.handle.net/10361/10214

Shen, Y., Rangarajan, S., Satyanaga, A., Rahardjo, H., Choon, L. E., Liu, H., ... & Ghosh, S. (2026). Instrumented unsaturated slope monitoring with IoT-based factor of safety calculations. Journal of Rock Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering, 18(8), 5937-5949. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jrmge.2025.11.031

Suissa, S., & Shuster, J. J. (1985). Exact unconditional sample sizes for the 2 times 2 binomial trial. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (General), 148(4), 317-327. https://doi.org/10.2307/2981892

Syed, M. A., Shrestha, M. S., & Khadgi, V. (2021). Last mile communication of multihazard early warning — A case study on Bangladesh. In I. Pal, R. Shaw, R. Djalante, & S. Shrestha (Eds.), Disaster resilience and sustainability (pp. 725-765). Elsevier. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-323-85195-4.00002-0